Elvira Nabiullina Wants To Resign Over Ukraine, Putin Says No

Russia’s highly regarded central bank Governor Elvira Nabiullina sought to resign after Vladimir Putin ordered an invasion of Ukraine, only to be told by the president to stay, according to four people with knowledge of the discussions.

Nominated for a new five-year term last week, Nabiullina’s current views couldn’t be learned. She is left to manage the fallout from a war that’s quickly undone much of what’s she’s accomplished in the nine years since she took office. The people said departure now would be seen as a betrayal by the president, with whom she has worked closely for nearly two decades.

Nabiullina, 58, hasn’t commented publicly on her reappointment and didn’t respond to a query for this article. The central bank’s press service didn’t respond to a request for comment for this article. After it was published, the press service told Tass that it “doesn’t correspond to reality,” providing no further details. A Kremlin spokesman didn’t reply to a request for comment. Only one senior official has quit over the war: longtime economic reformer Anatoly Chubais stepped down as Putin’s climate envoy this week and left the country, according to people familiar with the situation.

Nabiullina, favored by investors and hailed by publications including Euromoney and The Banker as one of the world’s best monetary policymakers, now faces a wartime economy isolated by international sanctions and starved for investment as foreign companies leave.

With the ruble plunging as the U.S. and its allies imposed sweeping sanctions — including on the central bank itself — in the wake of the Feb. 24 invasion, she more than doubled the key interest rate and imposed capital controls to stanch the outflow of cash.

The central bank said it gave up interventions to defend the ruble after international restrictions froze more than half of its $643 billion in reserves.

“So long as there’s an escalation, the central bank can only adapt to shocks,” said Oleg Vyugin, a former top Bank of Russia official who’s known Nabiullina for over 20 years.

Hopelessness

Connect the dots on the biggest economic issues.

Some central bank officials describe a state of hopelessness in the weeks since the invasion, feeling trapped in an institution that they fear will have little use for their market-oriented skills and experience as Russia is cut off from the world. At one point, the pace of departures was intense enough that the IT department was short of hands to terminate accounts. Arrows plastered along passageways steered employees through the final bureaucracy on their way out.

Other departments hunkered down under a heavier work load than usual and even saw a barrage of resumes arrive from banks targeted by sanctions.

Before the invasion, officials modeled scenarios that included a possible cut-off from the SWIFT financial messaging service but considered the possibility of sanctions on the central bank’s reserves too extreme to be anything but hypothetical, people familiar with the situation said.

Putin said earlier this month he’s confident Russia will overcome the current economic difficulties and emerge more independent. Comparing the current wave of restrictions to those imposed on the U.S.S.R. during the Cold War, he said, “the Soviet Union lived under sanctions, developed and attained colossal successes.”

In a brief statement last Friday after deciding to keep rates near a two-decade high of 20%, Nabiullina put off achieving her 4% inflation target until 2024 and warned the economy is headed for contraction and upheaval with no clear end in sight. In a break with recent tradition, she didn’t take questions after the rate meeting.

Economists predict a double-digit drop in output this year, while the ruble’s collapse and shortages of goods may touch off inflation of as much as 25%, a level not seen in Russia since the government’s 1998 debt default.

The ruble’s value has plunged over Nabiullina’s years as central banker

In a short video to the central bank’s staff on March 2, Nabiullina hinted at the upheaval inside, pleading to avoid “political debates” that “only burn our energy, which we need to do our job.” Describing an economic situation she called “extreme,” the governor said “all of us would have wanted for this not to happen.”

Until now, the crisis that followed Putin’s annexation of Crimea in 2014 was the biggest test of Nabiullina’s free-market mettle.

She fought against capital controls — advice that was then heeded by Putin — and set the ruble free, shifting to inflation targeting earlier than planned.

Frozen Reserves

Under her stewardship, the central bank amassed one of the world’s biggest stockpiles of foreign currency and gold, cracked down on lenders deemed mismanaged or under-capitalized, and brought inflation to the lowest in Russia’s post-Soviet history.

“When Nabiullina came in, no one thought she’d be able to stabilize inflation,” recalls Natalia Orlova, economist at Alfa-Bank. “She brought the central bank up to absolutely international standards.”

European Central Bank chief Christine Lagarde, a fellow opera-lover then in charge of the International Monetary Fund, in 2018 likened her qualities to those of a great conductor.

Foreign investors poured billions into Russian debt. Putin trusted her, listened to her opinion and defended her tight-money policies in front of other government officials. But much of her legacy came undone in a matter of hours after the sanctions laid siege to Russia’s economy.

The path forward is less obvious than in crises past. An emergency rate hike and restrictions on foreign-exchange transactions have for now bottled up problems in the banking industry, with Russian markets seeing only a piecemeal reopening. The threat of default is stalking the government and companies.

“There’s no hope for the central bank to return to its old policies,” said Sergei Guriev, professor of economics at Sciences Po Paris.

Guriev, who fled to Paris in 2013 and served as chief economist at the European Bank for Reconstruction and Development, has known Nabiullina for about 15 years.

“She didn’t sign up to work in wartime,” he said. “She’s not the kind of person who can work with financial markets shut off and catastrophic sanctions.”

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  208. Today, I went to the beach with my kids. I found a sea shell and gave it to my 4 year old daughter and said “You can hear the ocean if you put this to your ear.” She put the shell to her ear and screamed. There was a hermit crab inside and it pinched her ear. She never wants to go back! LoL I know this is entirely off topic but I had to tell someone!

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  232. My programmer is trying to persuade me to move to .net from PHP. I have always disliked the idea because of the expenses. But he’s tryiong none the less. I’ve been using Movable-type on a number of websites for about a year and am worried about switching to another platform. I have heard very good things about blogengine.net. Is there a way I can transfer all my wordpress content into it? Any kind of help would be really appreciated!

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  246. Hey there! I know this is kinda off topic however , I’d figured I’d ask. Would you be interested in exchanging links or maybe guest writing a blog article or vice-versa? My website goes over a lot of the same subjects as yours and I feel we could greatly benefit from each other. If you might be interested feel free to send me an e-mail. I look forward to hearing from you! Excellent blog by the way!

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  253. Hiya! I know this is kinda off topic however I’d figured I’d ask. Would you be interested in exchanging links or maybe guest writing a blog article or vice-versa? My website discusses a lot of the same subjects as yours and I feel we could greatly benefit from each other. If you happen to be interested feel free to send me an e-mail. I look forward to hearing from you! Terrific blog by the way!

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  258. With havin so much content and articles do you ever run into any problems of plagorism or copyright violation? My site has a lot of completely unique content I’ve either created myself or outsourced but it appears a lot of it is popping it up all over the web without my agreement. Do you know any solutions to help stop content from being ripped off? I’d genuinely appreciate it.

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  281. My programmer is trying to persuade me to move to .net from PHP. I have always disliked the idea because of the expenses. But he’s tryiong none the less. I’ve been using Movable-type on a variety of websites for about a year and am worried about switching to another platform. I have heard fantastic things about blogengine.net. Is there a way I can transfer all my wordpress content into it? Any kind of help would be really appreciated!

  282. Hey! I know this is kind of off-topic but I had to ask. Does operating a well-established blog like yours take a massive amount work? I’m completely new to operating a blog but I do write in my diary on a daily basis. I’d like to start a blog so I will be able to share my own experience and thoughts online. Please let me know if you have any ideas or tips for new aspiring bloggers. Appreciate it!

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  288. Hey I know this is off topic but I was wondering if you knew of any widgets I could add to my blog that automatically tweet my newest twitter updates. I’ve been looking for a plug-in like this for quite some time and was hoping maybe you would have some experience with something like this. Please let me know if you run into anything. I truly enjoy reading your blog and I look forward to your new updates.

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  290. Howdy would you mind stating which blog platform you’re working with? I’m looking to start my own blog in the near future but I’m having a difficult time choosing between BlogEngine/Wordpress/B2evolution and Drupal. The reason I ask is because your design and style seems different then most blogs and I’m looking for something completely unique. P.S Apologies for getting off-topic but I had to ask!

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  295. Hey I know this is off topic but I was wondering if you knew of any widgets I could add to my blog that automatically tweet my newest twitter updates. I’ve been looking for a plug-in like this for quite some time and was hoping maybe you would have some experience with something like this. Please let me know if you run into anything. I truly enjoy reading your blog and I look forward to your new updates.

  296. Howdy would you mind stating which blog platform you’re working with? I’m looking to start my own blog in the near future but I’m having a difficult time making a decision between BlogEngine/Wordpress/B2evolution and Drupal. The reason I ask is because your design and style seems different then most blogs and I’m looking for something completely unique. P.S Apologies for getting off-topic but I had to ask!

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