Nigerians, Business Owners in Squeeze Amid Fourth Inflation Decline
Despite Nigeria recording its fourth consecutive drop in the inflation rate, the much-anticipated relief is yet to trickle down to ordinary citizens and businesses.
PulseNets learnt that the country’s inflation eased to 21.88 percent in July from 22.22 percent in June, continuing a downward trend that began in April 2025, when it stood at 23.7 percent.
The decline has been widely celebrated by President Bola Ahmed Tinubu’s administration, with officials presenting it as proof of the government’s economic reforms delivering results after two years in office.
Similarly, Nigeria’s Gross Domestic Product (GDP) expanded to ₦372.8 trillion in 2024 following the rebasing exercise in July 2025. PulseNets also reported that inflation itself was rebased in January 2025, which sharply brought down the official year-on-year headline inflation to 24.48 percent from 34.80 percent.
This development may explain why Ngozi Okonjo-Iweala, Nigeria’s former Finance Minister and current WTO boss, remarked during a recent visit to President Tinubu that the country’s economy was showing signs of stabilisation.
Good Numbers, Harsh Realities
However, beneath these “beautiful statistics,” Nigerians are grappling with tougher realities. Food prices, high interest rates (27.50 percent in July), energy costs, and transportation remain punishingly high.
A 50kg bag of local rice now sells for between ₦69,000 and ₦75,000 in Abuja and Lagos. Fuel prices hover around ₦865–₦925 per litre, while cooking gas costs ₦1,000–₦1,200 per kg. Electricity tariffs for Band A customers are pegged at ₦209.50 to ₦231.79 per kilowatt-hour, while road and air transportation fares have spiked sharply.
These realities, PulseNets learnt, stand in sharp contrast to the “too-good-to-be-true statistics” presented by the National Bureau of Statistics (NBS).
Experts Split Over Inflation Figures
In separate interviews with PulseNets on Monday, economic experts expressed mixed views over the official inflation rate.
Mazi Okechukwu Unegbu, a former President of the Chartered Institute of Bankers of Nigeria (CIBN), dismissed the figures outright, insisting they do not reflect the economic suffering of Nigerians.
“There is a wide difference between the inflation figure by NBS and the reality on the ground. The government believes in statistics, ignoring realities. The NBS’s report is so disturbing. It is a beautiful report, but at the end of the day, there is nothing to write home about,” he told PulseNets.
Unegbu urged the government to shift focus from statistics to practical solutions.
“The government has to address the hunger in the land, not celebrate beautiful statistics. It needs to reconsider some of its economic policies, the interest rate, and agricultural policies. It is unfortunate that political jobbers praise the president that he is doing very, very well; however, some of us who study economics see it the other way,” he told PulseNets.
On his part, Gbolade Idakolo, Chief Executive Officer of SD & D Capital Management, highlighted that food inflation remains stubbornly high due to insecurity in farming areas and exchange rate volatility.
“The core inflation declined for the fourth consecutive period due to the Central Bank of Nigeria’s position on MPR and other interventions in the economy. However, food inflation continues to rise due to insecurity in agrarian areas and exchange rate challenges for imported agricultural inputs. Imported food prices are also maintaining a high rate, while logistics costs, especially energy costs and transportation of agricultural products, constitute a major factor affecting food inflation. The federal government needs to do more in pushing its agricultural policies to reduce the causative factors affecting food inflation,” Idakolo told PulseNets.
Earlier, PulseNets reported that the Centre for the Promotion of Private Enterprise (CPPE) noted that persistent food inflation continues to erode household incomes despite four months of headline inflation decline.
Adding a different perspective, Prof. Segun Ajibola, former President and Chairman of the Council of CIBN, explained the technical reasons behind the recorded inflation drop.
“The headline inflation figure is derived by computing changes in the prices of a basket of consumable items (consumer price index). The figure depends on the items contained in the basket. At times, the behavioural pattern of consumable items varies significantly. And since the basket is not all-inclusive, a drop in prices of the items in the basket so weighed may signal lower inflation, while the prices of the items not in the basket may remain high.
Also Read: Nigeria’s Inflation Rate Drops to 33.4%
Again, NBS tries to conduct a market survey to have first hand information about the market prices. It then depends on the prices in the market so surveyed, which may vary from those of other locations not visited. We do know that prices of food items vary from place to place in Nigeria.
The inflation figure rolled out may therefore not be representative of the real situation across board. It is an estimate that may vary from reality. NBS tries to manage such variances by being consistent with the contents of the basket so measured. But then, the error of commission and omission remains,” Prof. Ajibola told PulseNets.
