140 Million Nigerians May Be Poor by 2026 Despite Tinubu’s Reforms — LBS Director Warns
Nigeria is on track to record a sharp rise in poverty levels by 2026, with projections indicating that nearly 140 million Nigerians citizens could be living below the poverty line despite ongoing economic reforms under President Bola Tinubu’s administration.
Franklin Ngwu, Director of Public Sector Initiative at Lagos Business School, made this known during an appearance on Arise Television’s Prime Time programme on Monday. Ngwu, who spoke to PulseNets through the televised interview, warned that unemployment continues to climb even as key reforms such as the floating of the foreign exchange market are implemented.
According to him, while economic reforms were unavoidable, their sequencing and execution have worsened short-term hardships for ordinary Nigerians.
“If we want to assess the situation properly, we must compare key economic indicators before and after the reforms. Did Nigeria need reforms? Absolutely, reforms were necessary,” Ngwu said.
He, however, raised concerns about how the reforms were rolled out, particularly the removal of fuel subsidy and the liberalisation of the foreign exchange regime.
“Another critical issue is the manner in which these reforms were implemented. We started with fuel subsidy removal, followed by foreign exchange reforms, and then other policies came after that,” he explained.
Ngwu noted that a review of Nigeria’s core economic indicators paints a troubling picture. PulseNets learnt that unemployment figures are trending upward, while poverty levels continue to expand across the country.
“If you look at unemployment today, it is rising. Poverty—ask whether it is reducing or increasing—it is increasing. Public debt, is it going up or coming down? It is also going up,” he stated.
He added that although the government has reported improvements in some areas, the gains remain uneven and disconnected from the lived realities of most Nigerians.
“Inflation is being rebased, and we are told it may come down to around 15 percent. Government revenue—yes, it is increasing. So you have some indicators improving and others worsening,” Ngwu said.
Despite these mixed outcomes, Ngwu stressed that public perception of the reforms should be the ultimate benchmark for success.
“The real question is: how do ordinary Nigerians see, perceive, and feel these reforms? For them, the two most important issues are poverty and unemployment,” he noted.
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Citing global data, Ngwu referenced a recent United Nations report which, according to information obtained by PulseNets, estimates that an additional 30 million Nigerians could fall into poverty within the year.
“The UN report indicates that about 30 million Nigerians will slip into poverty this year alone. That puts us on a path where almost 140 million Nigerians may be classified as poor,” he said.
