ANALYSIS: Factors that enabled Alex Otti of the LP to overthrow the PDP in Abia

For many observers, Alex Otti’s victory as the next governor of the south-eastern state of Abia was not a surprise.

After several days of uncertainty and unrest, the Independent National Election Commission (INEC) announced that Alex Otti of the Labour Party (LP) had won the governorship race for Abia State on March 18.

A new governor from a different party will be installed on May 29 as a result of the victory, which puts an end to the Peoples Democratic Party’s (PDP) hegemonic dominance in the state.

After 13 years of violent military administration, the PDP was founded in 1998, and it came to power in 1999 when a former head of state named Olusegun Obasanjo was chosen as the country’s first civilian president. The PDP candidate, Orji Kalu, was elected as Abia’s first civilian governor in the same year, along with 20 other states in Nigeria.

Little break
The Progressive Democratic Party (PDP) ruled the state from 1999 until 2023, but in the state’s 2007 governorship election, the PDP was defeated by the now-defunct Progressives Peoples Alliance (PPA).

The outgoing governor, Mr. Kalu, had joined the PPA, a party he created in 2006 after clashing with the PDP’s national leadership, which is why the loss in 2007 was theoretically plausible.

Theodore Orji, his previous chief of staff, was subsequently chosen by Mr. Kalu to succeed him, and he worked with him to win the PPA’s nomination for governor in 2007.

But Mr. Orji rejoined the PDP, the party on which he was re-elected in 2011, while Mr. Kalu, who is now a senator for the Abia North District, switched to the APC (APC).

Afterwards, Mr. Orji named Okezie Ikpeazu as his successor, and the PDP continued to rule the state as a result of Ikpeazu’s victory in the 2015 governorship election.

On May 29, Mr. Ikpeazu, who was reelected in 2019, will have served his second term.

Was Otti’s triumph a surprise?
But many people were not surprised by Mr. Otti’s election as the state’s new governor in the southeast.

Given the favorable odds for the LP candidate, many political pundits had expected it would happen.

The chances

Peter Obi’s effect
Abia State, a PDP stronghold, lost to the “impact” of Peter Obi, the LP candidate in the presidential election, along with other states in the South-east and South-south areas.

The two areas and sections of the North-central had the most growth in support for Mr. Obi, a former governor of the state of Anambra.

Intriguingly, Mr. Otti’s entry into the governorship contest on the LP platform nearly happened at the same time that Mr. Obi emerged as the LP’s front-runner for president.

Many people joined the LP when Mr. Obi emerged as the party’s presidential candidate in an effort to protect the nation and their states from the PDP and APC’s allegedly corrupt old guard of politicians.
Even though Mr. Obi did not win the presidency, the fact that he ran for office led to widespread uprisings against the PDP and APC, the two major parties in the nation.

In the general elections of 2023, many relatively “unknown” LP candidates for other elected seats unexpectedly won, sometimes even ousting the incumbents.

In a recent guest appearance on Channels TV’s Politics Today, Mr. Ikpeazu acknowledged that the “impact” of the former governor of Anambra State was a big factor in the PDP’s defeat in the state’s governorship race.

The PDP senatorial candidate for the Abia South District was the governor of Abia, however she was defeated by Enyinnaya Abaribe of the All Progressives Grand Alliance. It’s interesting to note that Mr. Abaribe left the PDP, where he was the Senate Minority Leader, after being passed over for the party’s governorship ticket.

“That Peter Obi effect, I predicted it and told my party. I even volunteered that reasonable politicians should not ignore what Peter Obi was doing,” the governor said in the interview.

The State Commissioner for Youth Development, who served as the PDP’s state collation agent during the election, agrees with the governor Charles Esonu that Mr. Obi’s influence was a major contributing cause in the party’s defeat.

“The biggest factor that made the contest look as if it was anything to go by between the Labour Party and the PDP was the Peter Obi’s wave,” Mr Esonu, a lawyer, told PulseNets.

“Alex Otti has contested several elections in Abia State (but lost in all). The only thing is that this Obi’s syndrome now helped him to muster votes (in the election),” he added.

G-5 and PDP dispute
Observers think that the PDP’s fight with its G-5 governors and presidential candidate Atiku Abubakar, as well as the party’s national leadership, helped the party’s bad performance in Abia, as well as other states in the two regions.

Mr. Ikpeazu was a part of the G-5, which was headed by Nyesom Wike, the governor of Rivers State.

In order to establish “regional balance,” the group had requested that Atiku not be supported in the election because he did not assist in Iyorchia Ayu’s departure as the party’s National Chairman at the time.

The governor argued that Mr. Ayu and Atiku are both natives of northern Nigeria.

However, Mr. Ayu resigned following the elections as a result of a court ruling that forbade him from holding himself out as the party’s national chairman.

According to analysts, the G-5’s decision to reject Atiku appeared to act against the PDP in the 18 March governorship race in Abia, as well as in other states. When the Peter Obi effect was drawing individuals to the party, the supporters lacked a clear direction.

The drama gave Mr. Otti a benefit, helping him win the election for governor of Abia State.

Lack of time for Ahiwe’s promotion
The difficult task of effectively promoting its governorship candidate, who surfaced a few weeks before the polls, presented itself to the PDP in Abia State.

The PDP candidate for governor in the state, Uche Ikonne, was elected, however he passed away on January 25. On February 4, exactly five weeks before the scheduled election, the party proposed Okey Ahiwe as the replacement for the deceased candidate.

However, some PDP members in the state felt that the party did not have enough time to “sell” its candidate to the electorate because the election, which was originally scheduled to take place on March 11, was later postponed by a week (18 March).

Notwithstanding the fact that Mr. Ahiwe’s campaign did not have enough time to prepare, Peter Aguwamba, a PDP member in the state, called the factor “trivial” in explaining why his party lost the governorship race.

“It could be seen as one, but a minor part of them,” Mr Aguwamba said about the inadequate time the PDP had to campaign for its candidate in the election.

“But given that this man (Ikonne) had gotten the (PDP governorship) ticket in May last year and had campaigned and reached out to people, he had actually gotten into the minds of the people. He (Ikonne) did all those in six months. What you can do in six months, certainly, you cannot do in two months,” he said in reference to the time between Mr Ahiwe’s emergence and the governorship election.

Overall, Mr. Ahiwe’s campaign may have had insufficient time, which may have benefited the LP candidate, who won the election by a margin of more than 84, 000 votes.

perceived poor leadership by PDP governors
Residents of Abia State have griped for years about not receiving the benefits of democracy.

It has been said that the PDP, the party in power for more than 20 years in the state, is to blame for the underdevelopment of the territory.

Abia is frequently described as a state having a lengthy history of very poor infrastructure development, particularly with regard to road construction, by locals and visitors.

It is very nearly the truth.

For instance, a PulseNets assessment in 2020 uncovered the state’s dismal road network conditions and shoddy road project execution.

There are several signs of rot and neglect in the state’s infrastructure. With each PDP administration in the state, the populace has gotten more and more irate.

The Abia people now have a way out of what they consider to be awful administration under the PDP’s rule in the state thanks to Mr. Otti’s admission into the contest, his third consecutive attempt.

As a result, there were widespread celebrations all around the state when word of Mr. Otti’s triumph reached the public.

Upon the announcement that the LP candidate had won the election, there were multiple video clips of locals making the claim that “poor government” in the state had come to an end.

Experts opined that the celebrations demonstrate how the populace was fed up with what they regarded to be the state governments led by the PDP to be performing poorly and wanted a shift to a government led by a different political party.

“Abians have been highly disappointed in the way that the PDP administrations have piloted the affairs of Abia State since the dawn of democracy in 1999,” said Chidiebere Nwachukwu, from Isiala-Ngwa North Council Area of the state.

The citizens of the state allegedly tried to overthrow the PDP government in 2015 and 2019 but were failed due to purported electoral malpractices, according to Mr. Nwachukwu, a lecturer at the University of Nigeria, Nsukka.

“Fortunately, in 2023, the story was different. So, the spontaneous celebration that you observed among Abia people, soon after the election results were announced, was an indication that Abia people were happy that this time around their votes were allowed to count,” he said.

The lecturer claimed that, like previous PDP governors in the state, the current governor, Mr. Ikpeazu, had “woefully” failed in leading Abia.

Since Mr. Otti was considered as a credible path to good governance in the state, the perceived terrible governance of the state’s successive PDP governments appeared to have hurt the party’s chances at the polls.

With fewer than two months until Mr. Otti’s inauguration, the former banker will be aiming to vindicate the faith and confidence that Abia voters placed in him during the election.