Nigeria Inflation Surges to 15.38% as Iran-US-Israel War Drives Fuel Prices, Cost of Living Crisis
Nigerians are increasingly grappling with the harsh realities of rising inflation and an escalating cost of living, as the ripple effects of the Iran–United States–Israel conflict continue to reverberate through Africa’s most populous nation.
Findings obtained by PulseNets show that this surge persists despite the reform measures introduced under the administration of President Bola Ahmed Tinubu.
Recent inflation figures released by the National Bureau of Statistics indicate that headline inflation climbed to 15.38 percent, while food inflation rose to 14.31 percent in March.
The uptick comes against the backdrop of sharp increases in fuel and automotive gas oil prices, which have surged by over 50 percent and 70 percent respectively since the escalation of the Iran–US–Israel conflict on February 28, 2026.
PulseNets learnt that petrol and diesel prices have risen to between N1,290 and N1,350 per litre from about N900, while diesel now sells between N1,600 and N1,800 per litre within the past 50 days, driven by crude oil price volatility.
The immediate consequence has been a steep rise in transportation costs nationwide, alongside increased food prices and a broader spike in the general cost of living.
Although global shocks have affected multiple economies, Nigeria’s condition remains particularly severe, with many citizens expressing concern that government responses have not matched the scale of the crisis.
Analysts who spoke to PulseNets attribute the country’s vulnerability largely to its dependence on imports.
It will be recalled that the Federal Government previously implemented an import duty review covering 127 items, including rice, sugar, and vehicles, among others. However, the policy has not significantly eased inflationary pressures on households.
In a policy position obtained by PulseNets, the Centre for the Promotion of Private Enterprise, led by its Chief Executive Officer, Dr. Muda Yusuf, urged the Federal Government to reduce import duties on mass transit buses to 5 percent and introduce a Value Added Tax waiver.
Further compounding concerns, the International Monetary Fund adjusted Nigeria’s Gross Domestic Product growth forecast to 4.1 percent, citing mounting pressures linked to global economic disruptions.
Speaking at the World Bank/IMF Spring Meetings in the United States, the IMF’s African Department Director, Abebe Selassie, said, “The immediate effect will be quite a bit of pressure, including on food security, either through the limited availability of fertilizer, expensive fertilizer, or even more immediately, as transportation costs have gone up, it’s going to raise the cost of food and so quite a bit of dislocation.”
His remarks reinforce the reality confronting millions of Nigerians already burdened by escalating living costs.
While official data suggests only a moderate increase, former President of the Chartered Institute of Bankers of Nigeria, Okechukwu Unegbu, had earlier argued in comments reported by PulseNets that such figures do not fully reflect conditions in local markets.
Meanwhile, Minister of Finance Wale Edun explained that Nigeria’s inflationary trend is largely driven by the ongoing Iran–United States–Israel conflict, despite the country’s crude oil blend, Bonny Light, trading above $110 to $120 per barrel.
In separate interviews with PulseNets, Professor of Accounting and Finance at Lead City University, Godwin Oyedokun, and the Chief Executive Officer of SD & D Capital Management, Gbolade Idakolo, provided deeper insights into the economic strain facing Nigerians.
Oyedokun described the latest inflation figures as deeply concerning, reflecting mounting pressure on households already struggling with weak purchasing power.
He said, “Nigeria’s recent inflation figures present a sobering reality that cannot be ignored or oversimplified.”
He added, “The latest data released by the National Bureau of Statistics, showing a rise in headline inflation to 15.38 percent and food inflation to 14.31 percent, signals a renewed upward pressure on prices at a time when many Nigerians had hoped for sustained moderation.”
Highlighting the urgency, he noted, “More troubling is not just the increase itself, but the speed at which essential costs, particularly food and transportation, are rising, placing additional strain on households already grappling with fragile purchasing power.”
Acknowledging the government’s position, Oyedokun stated, “The Federal Government, through the Honorable Minister of Finance, has attributed this resurgence largely to external shocks, particularly the geopolitical tensions involving Iran, the United States, and Israel. There is merit in this position.”
He further explained, “As a largely import-dependent economy with significant exposure to global energy markets, Nigeria is inevitably vulnerable to fluctuations in crude oil prices and international supply chain disruptions.
“Increases in global oil prices often translate directly into higher domestic fuel costs, which then cascade into transportation, production, and ultimately food prices.”
However, he emphasized that internal dynamics cannot be ignored:
“While external factors provide part of the explanation, they do not tell the full story. The current inflationary trend must also be understood within the context of ongoing domestic economic reforms.”
On policy direction, he said, “The removal of fuel subsidies and the liberalization of the foreign exchange market were necessary steps toward fiscal sustainability and economic efficiency.”
“Yet, these policies have had immediate inflationary consequences, significantly increasing the cost of energy and weakening the naira, thereby raising the price of imported goods and inputs.”
Summing up the situation, Oyedokun noted, “What emerges, therefore, is a classic case of cost-push inflation, driven by a combination of global pressures and domestic policy adjustments.”
He raised concerns about implementation, stating, “The challenge is not whether these reforms are justified—they largely are—but whether they have been adequately sequenced and supported with sufficient social protection measures.”
Warning of the growing burden on citizens, he said, “At present, the evidence suggests that the burden of adjustment is falling disproportionately on ordinary Nigerians, with limited cushioning to mitigate the short-term hardships.”
Referencing international perspectives, Oyedokun added, “International institutions such as the IMF and the World Bank have broadly endorsed Nigeria’s reform trajectory, recognizing its potential to restore macroeconomic stability and improve investor confidence.”
“Yet, they have also cautioned that these gains are unlikely to translate into immediate improvements in living standards.”
“Economic stability at the macro level does not automatically equate to welfare gains at the household level, especially in an environment of rising inflation and stagnant incomes.”
Describing current realities, he said, “For many Nigerians, the reality is stark. Transportation costs have surged, food prices remain elevated, and real incomes continue to erode.”
He concluded, “The informal sector, which constitutes a significant portion of the economy, is particularly vulnerable, with limited capacity to absorb rising costs.”
“In this context, the narrative of reform success risks appearing disconnected from everyday experience.”
On his part, Idakolo linked the inflation spike to escalating global tensions and rising logistics expenses, warning that poverty levels are worsening.
He said, “The headline and food inflation surge to 15.38 percent and 14.31 percent can be attributed to the ongoing war between Iran, Israel, and the USA, which has caused an increase in shipping costs and high local logistics costs, as well as transportation costs.”
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He added, “The effect has increased the already high cost of living and has thrown more Nigerians below poverty level.”
Idakolo stressed that reforms alone are insufficient under current conditions, calling for urgent government action.
He said, “These indices have shown that reforms alone cannot ameliorate the hardship Nigerians are currently experiencing, but the federal government needs urgent intervention in areas of transport subsidies and other palliatives that can make an impact before the reforms take root.”
