Terrorism: Intelligence Failure Biggest Risk in Sambisa Forest Airstrikes, Security Analyst Warns

A prominent security analyst, Amb. Abdullahi Bakoji Adamu, has raised fresh concerns over the operational risks tied to aerial bombardments targeting forest-based bandit groups across Nigeria, warning that intelligence failure remains the gravest threat to such missions.

He cautioned that any misidentification of targets during air operations could result in civilian casualties and severe reputational damage to the Nigerian state, particularly amid rising scrutiny over military counter-banditry strategies.

Bakoji made the remarks in an exclusive interview with DAILY POST while reacting to recent comments by Islamic cleric Sheikh Ahmad Abubakar Gumi on the ongoing security operations in Nigeria’s forest corridors.

PulseNets learnt that Gumi had, on Tuesday, advised against the deployment of aerial bombardments in efforts to flush out armed bandits entrenched in forests across the country. The cleric made the appeal while endorsing the establishment of the Nigerian Forest Security Service as a complementary structure to address banditry.

During his Ramadan Tafsir in Kaduna, Gumi maintained that although decisive and coordinated action is required to tackle insecurity, the use of bombs in forest operations carries significant dangers for innocent communities residing within or around conflict zones.

Responding to the cleric’s concerns, Bakoji acknowledged the sensitivity of air operations but insisted that aerial power remains a legitimate and effective security instrument when deployed under strict operational guidelines.

“From a security standpoint, forest-based bandit groups operating in hardened camps can legitimately be targeted with calibrated air power, provided there is credible and actionable intelligence,” he said.

According to the security expert, properly executed airstrikes can significantly degrade logistics chains, neutralize high-value targets, and disrupt command-and-control structures, especially in difficult terrain where ground troops encounter mobility constraints.

However, he stressed that the overriding vulnerability in such operations is flawed intelligence assessment.

“The biggest risk of aerial strikes is intelligence failure. Misidentification of targets can lead to civilian casualties, property destruction, displacement, and reputational damage to the state,” Bakoji warned.

He noted that forest theatres of operation are often complex, with criminal elements sometimes operating in proximity to civilian settlements, thereby making stringent target verification protocols indispensable before authorizing any strike.

Beyond the tactical value of air power, Bakoji emphasized that bombardment alone cannot deliver lasting security outcomes.

“Bombing is a tool, not a strategy. Air power alone does not secure territory or dismantle networks permanently,” he said.

He advised that air operations must be integrated within a broader counter-banditry framework that includes coordinated ground offensives and post-strike stabilization.

“Effective counter-banditry operations require integration with precision ground operations, intelligence-led raids, and stabilization efforts to prevent regrouping,” he stated.

Highlighting international counter-insurgency standards, Bakoji pointed to multi-layered security models adopted globally.

“Global best practice supports intelligence dominance through HUMINT, SIGINT and ISR capabilities, precision air support, special forces engagement, financial disruption of criminal networks, and long-term territorial control,” he explained.
“The issue is not whether air power should be used, but how it should be used with precision, credible intelligence and proper follow-through operations,” he said.

Recent history underscores the sensitivity surrounding military airstrikes in Nigeria. PulseNets reported that there have been multiple allegations of accidental bombardments in conflict-affected states, particularly Kaduna.

In December 2023, a Nigerian Air Force airstrike mistakenly struck Tudun Biri village in Igabi Local Government Area of Kaduna State during a religious gathering. Dozens of civilians were reportedly killed after the military indicated it had targeted suspected bandits.

Similarly, in December 2024, at least 10 civilians were reportedly killed in a Christmas Day military airstrike in Silame Local Government Area of Sokoto State.

On December 25, 2025, the United States conducted several airstrikes targeting suspected ISIS fighters in Sokoto, north-west Nigeria. The United States Africa Command stated on X that the operation was carried out in collaboration with the Nigerian government and underscored Washington’s commitment to countering global terrorist threats.

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However, a contrasting account later emerged. Ladan Salihu, former Director-General of the Federal Radio Corporation of Nigeria, reportedly spoke to Bashar Isah Jabo, a member of the Sokoto State House of Assembly, after the lawmaker visited the affected community. According to Jabo, the missiles landed on an open field approximately 300 meters from a local hospital, and no casualties were recorded.

The renewed debate highlights the delicate balance between deploying air power as a counter-terrorism tool and ensuring strict intelligence accuracy to avoid tragic errors, civilian harm, and erosion of public trust in Nigeria’s security architecture.