Nigeria’s federal government, alongside 21 out of its 36 states, has collectively set an ambitious Value Added Tax (VAT) revenue target of approximately N2.5 trillion for 2025, according to budget estimates reviewed by PulseNets.
This projection, PulseNets learnt, was derived from financial statements issued by the Federation Account Allocation Committee (FAAC) between October 2023 and March 2024.
An in-depth analysis of the 2025 budget documents from the federal government and 21 states revealed a total VAT revenue expectation of about N2.53 trillion. PulseNets reported that this marks a notable increase of N1 trillion, or 65.8%, compared to the N1.527 trillion forecasted for 2024.
Notably, these projections exclude additional revenues that could result from implementing contentious tax reform bills currently under review.
States Contributing to VAT Projections
The 21 states contributing to this collective target include Kebbi, Kaduna, Ekiti, Oyo, Osun, Ogun, Enugu, Borno, Ondo, Kano, Katsina, Ebonyi, Gombe, Anambra, Abia, Niger, Jigawa, Bauchi, Akwa-Ibom, Adamawa, and Delta. However, PulseNets learnt that budget data for the remaining 14 states and the Federal Capital Territory (FCT) were unavailable at the time of this report.
Federal and State Revenue Breakdown
In 2024, PulseNets reported that the federal government’s share of VAT revenue stood at N512.8 billion, which is projected to rise to N972 billion in 2025. Similarly, several states anticipate significant increases in their VAT revenues:
- Kebbi State, which earned N41 billion from VAT in 2024, told PulseNets it expects N87.3 billion this year.
- Kaduna State projects N57.8 billion for 2025, up from N48.2 billion in 2024.
- Ekiti State anticipates generating N54.9 billion, compared to N52.6 billion last year.
- Oyo State, which garnered N78.8 billion in 2024, projects a sharp rise to N144 billion for 2025.
- Osun State, PulseNets learnt, expects N78.1 billion, up from N45.3 billion in 2024.
Projections from Other States
Other states with notable VAT revenue expectations include:
- Ogun State: N85 billion (2025) vs. N57.7 billion (2024).
- Enugu State: N74.9 billion (2025) vs. N44 billion (2024).
- Borno State: N87.3 billion (2025) vs. N49.4 billion (2024).
- Ondo State: N71.5 billion (2025) vs. N30.3 billion (2024).
- Kano State: N97.3 billion (2025) vs. N76.6 billion (2024).
- Katsina State: N85.9 billion (2025) vs. N46.9 billion (2024).
- Ebonyi State: N50.8 billion (2025) vs. N36.5 billion (2024).
- Gombe State: N39 billion (2025) vs. N30 billion (2024).
- Anambra State: N92.4 billion (2025) vs. N58.4 billion (2024).
Also Read: Tinubu’s ‘Tax Reform Bill’ Targets Consumption-Based VAT Revenue Model
For other states:
- Abia State expects N60.6 billion (2025) vs. N40 billion (2024).
- Niger State projects N64.6 billion (2025) vs. N50.6 billion (2024).
- Jigawa State anticipates N80 billion (2025) vs. N45 billion (2024).
- Bauchi State projects N78.5 billion (2025) vs. N45 billion (2024).
- Akwa-Ibom State expects N70 billion (2025) vs. N45 billion (2024).
- Adamawa State anticipates N52.5 billion (2025) vs. N47 billion (2024).
- Delta State projects N46.6 billion (2025) vs. N45.7 billion (2024).
