As Nigeria inches toward the 2027 general elections, a fresh wave of political anxiety is spreading among citizens, analysts, and party loyalists across the country.

The latest surge of defections by governors, senators, and influential political figures from opposition parties to the ruling All Progressives Congress (APC) has fueled growing fears that Africa’s largest democracy may be sliding toward a de facto one-party state before the 2027 Elections.

PulseNets learnt that in the last few months, Nigeria’s political landscape has witnessed one of its most dramatic realignments since the Fourth Republic began in 1999.

Among the latest high-profile defections are those of Enugu State Governor Peter Mbah and Bayelsa State Governor Douye Diri, who both abandoned the Peoples Democratic Party (PDP) for the APC within days of each other.

With these moves, the ruling party now commands control of 25 out of 36 states, leaving the PDP with eight, while the Labour Party (LP), All Progressives Grand Alliance (APGA), and New Nigeria People’s Party (NNPP) retain one state apiece.

Political observers told PulseNets that this consolidation of power has sparked legitimate concerns about the survival of opposition politics ahead of 2027 — and whether President Bola Ahmed Tinubu’s party could soon face little or no resistance.

Déjà Vu: When History Repeats Itself

To many Nigerians, the current political climate feels hauntingly familiar.

PulseNets obtained historical accounts recalling how, during General Sani Abacha’s regime in the 1990s, Nigeria’s return to civilian rule was manipulated through the creation of five state-approved political parties — the UNCP, CNC, GDM, DPN, and NCPN — all of which later adopted Abacha as their consensus presidential candidate in 1998.

Political historians who spoke to PulseNets say the pattern of opposition collapse and centralization of power around one political bloc mirrors that era.

PDP in Disarray, Opposition on Life Support

Once Nigeria’s dominant political powerhouse, the Peoples Democratic Party (PDP) is now mired in leadership crises, factional battles, and a steady stream of defections that have weakened its national structure.

Since President Tinubu assumed office in May 2023, PulseNets learnt that the PDP has lost more than 15 senators, several House of Representatives members, and at least four governors to the APC.

Sources within the party told PulseNets that the centre “is barely holding,” as internal rifts deepen and confidence in the leadership wanes.

The Labour Party (LP), which gained significant popularity during the 2023 general elections, is equally battling internal wars, with rival factions claiming legitimacy and multiple court injunctions stalling its national leadership.

Similarly, the APGA, once regarded as a regional stronghold, appears to have lost its ideological footing. Its only sitting governor, Prof. Charles Soludo of Anambra State, has publicly expressed support for Tinubu’s second-term ambition.

The NNPP, founded on the populist momentum of Rabiu Kwankwaso, now drifts in uncertainty amid internal wrangling and waning public trust.

Speaking exclusively to PulseNets, Agbo Major, National Chairman of the NNPP, decried what he described as “a coordinated assault on opposition voices.”

“Every genuine democrat should be worried. We are slowly sliding into a system where one party controls everything — and that’s a dangerous place to be,” Major told PulseNets.

“If one party holds both the legislature and the executive, then who holds them accountable? That’s how democracy dies — not overnight, but gradually.”

He further lamented the deep-rooted culture of self-interest in Nigerian politics:

“Politics here has become a business venture, not public service. The perks are too attractive, so people are willing to abandon ideology and chase benefits. That’s why governors can defect overnight without consulting their base.”

According to Major, the mass defections from Enugu, Bayelsa, and other states are “a tragic sign” of how loyalty to personal gain has replaced commitment to national progress.

Opposition Voices Warn Senate Leadership

PulseNets obtained records from a recent plenary session where Senate Minority Leader Abba Moro cautioned that the continued exodus of lawmakers from opposition parties to the APC was “a ticking time bomb for democracy.”

He warned Senate President Godswill Akpabio to remember that “history will not forget those who watched while democratic institutions crumbled under their watch.”

The current pattern, analysts say, echoes the Second Republic (1979–1983) when, despite holding power at the centre, the ruling National Party of Nigeria (NPN) controlled only seven of the nineteen states — allowing opposition parties like UPN, NPP, PRP, and GNPP to ensure vibrant accountability.

Today, that political balance is nearly gone.

Defections About ‘Survival,’ Not Ideology — APC Insider

Not everyone sees the trend as a threat. Some APC insiders told PulseNets that the defections are driven by political survival instincts rather than ideological alignment.

Okpokwu Ogenyi, a former governorship aspirant in Benue State and APC chieftain, described most of the defectors as “career opportunists.”

“Many are not crossing over because of ideology. Take Enugu’s governor — he was doing fairly well, yet he jumped ship. It’s self-preservation, nothing more,” Ogenyi told PulseNets.

He maintained that Nigeria’s democracy is resilient enough to withstand political realignments.

“Nigeria can never return to a one-party system. The country is far too politically aware for that. What we are seeing is simply politicians aligning with the centre to stay relevant,” he added.

According to him, while some defections are motivated by genuine support for Tinubu’s policies on infrastructure and human capital, others are simply acts of desperation.

“Let’s be honest — some defect because they believe in the President’s vision. Others are just looking for political cover. But if you truly believe in your party’s ideology, stay and build it,” he told PulseNets.

‘PDP Is Reaping Its Own Karma’ — APC Supporters

For some APC loyalists, the opposition’s current misfortunes are poetic justice.

Dada Akinfemi, a former House of Representatives aspirant from Kogi State, told PulseNets that the PDP “is reaping the exact seed it sowed” when it dominated Nigeria’s politics for sixteen years.

“This is karma. The PDP once bragged about ruling for 100 years. They destroyed opposition parties back then — now the same fate has caught up with them,” Akinfemi said.

He added that the lesson for all political actors is clear: “Power is transient. No party should ever believe it owns the country.”

The ‘99.9 Percent’ Controversy and Renewed Democratic Fears

Fears of one-party dominance were further heightened by comments made by Senate President Godswill Akpabio, who, during a reception for defecting Akwa Ibom Governor Umo Eno, reportedly boasted that “President Tinubu will secure 99.9% of the votes in 2027.”

PulseNets learnt that this remark triggered outrage among civil society groups, democracy advocates, and legal experts, who viewed it as undemocratic and arrogant.

Human rights lawyer Barr. David Mike told PulseNets that such statements are “reckless and dangerous.”

“A Senate President should be a constitutional check on the executive, not a cheerleader. When the head of the legislature predicts vote margins for the president, it signals complacency and institutional decay,” Mike stated.

He added that democracy dies when competition disappears and opposition becomes criminalized.

‘Tinubu Has Crippled Opposition’ — Nigerians React

Across Nigeria, frustration among opposition members continues to grow.

Haruna Dogo, a PDP youth leader in Kaduna, told PulseNets that the President is “deliberately weakening the opposition instead of improving governance.”

“People are hungry, jobless, and insecure, yet the government’s focus is on neutralizing critics. That’s not democracy,” Dogo lamented.

Similarly, Madaki, a former APC senatorial aspirant in Benue South, described the situation as “the worst form of state capture imaginable.”

“This is not politics — it’s political hostage-taking. People are defecting out of fear, not conviction,” he told PulseNets.

Former Senate President Adolphus Wabara, who now chairs the PDP Board of Trustees, also echoed these fears.

“What we are witnessing is not coincidence — it’s a systematic agenda to turn Nigeria into a one-party state. But come 2027, it will be ordinary Nigerians, not defectors, who will decide,” Wabara told PulseNets.

The Catholic Bishops of Nigeria also issued a communiqué warning that “Nigeria is gradually sliding into a one-party state, and that is dangerous for democracy.”

The statement, obtained by PulseNets, was signed by Archbishop Lucius Ugorji and Bishop Donatus Ogun at the end of their plenary session in Akwa Ibom State.

When Babangida Tried to Control Politics

Political analysts reminded PulseNets that Nigeria has seen similar attempts at controlling political plurality in the past.

During the late 1980s, then Military President Ibrahim Babangida (IBB) introduced a two-party system — the Social Democratic Party (SDP) and the National Republican Convention (NRC) — both designed, as he put it, to be “a little to the left and a little to the right.”

While IBB argued that the system would reduce ethnic divisions and foster unity, critics saw it as a calculated move to limit true political freedom.

That experiment collapsed following the annulment of the June 12, 1993 presidential election, widely considered Nigeria’s freest and fairest poll.

Now, over three decades later, history seems to be repeating itself — only this time under democratic rule.

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As defections multiply and opposition structures crumble, Nigerians are left wondering what the 2027 elections will truly represent.

Will it be a contest of ideas — or a coronation under a one-party shadow?

Political experts who spoke to PulseNets say the fear is not merely about who wins in 2027, but what remains of democracy if dissenting voices continue to fade.

For now, 2027 remains uncertain — heavily pregnant with possibilities, and perhaps, with peril.