Nigerians are bracing for another nationwide increase in premium motor spirit (petrol) prices after Dangote Refinery announced a fresh gantry price adjustment on Friday, marking the fourth upward review in March 2026 amid escalating tensions linked to the Iran–United States–Israel tensions.

The 650,000-barrel-per-day facility, PulseNets learnt, disclosed in a circular to marketers that its loading price has been raised to N1,245 per litre from N1,175 per litre.

PulseNets obtained the notice issued on Friday, where the refinery confirmed the adjustment.

“The gantry price increased from N1,175 per liter to N1,245 per liter,” the refinery stated, adding that the new rate takes effect from Saturday, March 21, 2026.

The company attributed the development to the worsening geopolitical climate in the Middle East, which has pushed global crude benchmarks higher. Data obtained by PulseNets showed that Brent Crude and West Texas Intermediate surged to $112 and $98 per barrel respectively as of Saturday morning.

The spokesperson of the Independent Petroleum Marketers Association of Nigeria and the Natural Oil and Gas Suppliers Association of Nigeria, Chinedu Ukadike, confirmed the latest price adjustment, speaking to PulseNets.

PulseNets reported that the refinery has revised petrol prices four times within March alone, moving from N774 to N875, then N995, N1,175, and now N1,245 per litre.

This latest adjustment signals that marketers and retailers dependent on Dangote-supplied fuel will inevitably revise pump prices upward to align with the new gantry rate.

Industry data released by the Nigerian Midstream and Downstream Petroleum Regulatory Authority on March 10, obtained by PulseNets, indicated that the Dangote Refinery accounted for 61 percent of Nigeria’s domestic petrol supply in February 2026, representing 39.6 million litres per day out of the national consumption of 64.9 million litres daily.

By implication, a significant portion of Nigerian consumers will face higher fuel costs from Saturday.

Market analysis shows that pump prices could rise by approximately N70, pushing retail prices to between N1,331 and N1,400 per litre from the N1,261 to N1,330 range recorded in Abuja as of Friday night.

Reacting to the development, Wumi Iledare and Godwin Oyedokun, in separate interviews with PulseNets, attributed the price surge to global oil market disruptions triggered by the Middle East crisis.

Dangote fuel price hike reflects global oil reality, not local policy failure — Prof Iledare

Professor Iledare defended the latest petrol price increase to N1,245 per litre, describing it as an inevitable outcome of global crude oil dynamics rather than domestic policy lapses.

“Fuel prices are closely tied to global crude oil prices. What we are seeing today is not unusual in a deregulated market environment,” he said.

He explained that despite improvements in local refining capacity and Nigeria’s crude-for-naira initiative, domestic pricing remains exposed to international market forces.

“Domestic petrol pricing remains influenced by global market forces. You cannot isolate Nigeria from what is happening in the international oil market,” he noted.

Further elaborating, he stated that refiners operate within strict economic parameters.

“Commercial refiners must take into account the opportunity cost of crude oil, whether sourced locally or internationally. They must also consider foreign exchange exposure, financing obligations, and future market risks,” he said.

According to him, local refining offers operational advantages but does not eliminate vulnerability to global volatility.

“Local refining reduces import logistics risks, but it does not shield Nigeria from global oil price volatility. That is a fundamental reality Nigerians must understand,” he added.

Iledare emphasized that Nigeria has transitioned into a market-driven pricing structure.

“Petrol pricing is now more market-driven and less politically determined. This transition may be painful, but it is necessary for long-term sustainability,” he stated.

He urged consumers to adapt by embracing energy efficiency strategies.

“Energy efficiency, transport pooling, and gradual fuel substitution, especially towards gas, will become increasingly important in the coming years,” he advised.

He also stressed the need for policy consistency and transparency in the downstream sector.

“Nigerians should demand policy consistency, transparency, and healthy competition in the downstream sector— not just lower pump prices,” he said.

Describing the shift as both difficult and necessary, he added that long-term benefits depend on stable policy direction.

“The short-term pain can yield long-term gains if government policies remain predictable, refining competition deepens, and social protection measures are properly targeted,” he said.

He warned that inconsistent policy signals could undermine progress.

“The real danger is not high prices alone—it is policy uncertainty. Investors need clarity, and consumers need stability,” he cautioned.

Highlighting broader opportunities, he urged a more diversified energy strategy.

“The real opportunity is not just local refining— it is building a resilient and diversified energy economy that can withstand global shocks,” he told PulseNets.

Dangote fuel price hike driven by global oil shock — Prof Oyedokun

On his part, Professor Oyedokun maintained that the latest petrol price increase reflects deeper global market disruptions.

“The latest increase in petrol price to about N1,245 per liter reflects a deeper global crisis rather than a purely domestic pricing decision.

“The surge is largely driven by rising crude oil prices, particularly Brent crude, which has climbed significantly due to geopolitical tensions in key oil-producing regions,” he said.

He warned that the economic consequences for Nigeria are already unfolding.

“For Nigeria, the implications are immediate and severe. Despite local refining capacity, the country remains vulnerable to international oil price movements,” he stated.

He pointed to structural weaknesses that amplify external shocks.

“Dollar-denominated crude pricing, exchange rate pressures, and a deregulated downstream sector mean that global energy shocks are quickly transmitted into domestic inflation.

“This directly worsens living costs for households and raises operational expenses for businesses,” he added.

On policy direction, he cautioned against reinstating blanket subsidies.

“Government response should be pragmatic and targeted. Rather than reintroducing a blanket fuel subsidy, authorities should consider temporary relief measures focused on critical sectors such as transportation and agriculture,” he said.

He also recommended coordinated fiscal and monetary interventions.

“Reducing taxes and levies on petroleum products, stabilizing the foreign exchange market, and ensuring effective implementation of crude-for-naira arrangements will help mitigate the pressure,” he stated.

Looking ahead, he emphasized structural reforms as critical.

“In the medium to long term, boosting crude oil production, strengthening domestic refining competition, and investing in alternative energy and mass transit systems are essential steps,” he noted.

Oyedokun further advised Nigerians to align expectations with prevailing realities.

“The era of artificially cheap fuel has ended, and global market forces now play a dominant role.

Also Read: Petrol Price to Drop Soon as Dangote Refinery Resumes Loading

“Nigerians must adopt a realistic and constructive stance by demanding transparency in pricing while adjusting consumption patterns.

“Ultimately, Nigeria’s true energy security lies not just in refining capacity but in reducing structural dependence on global oil price volatility,” he told PulseNets.